ANN-Based Ground Motion Model for Turkey Using Stochastic Simulation of Earthquakes

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ANN-Based Ground Motion Model for Turkey Using Stochastic Simulation of Earthquakes
Journal
Geophysical Journal International (GJI)
Title
ANN-Based Ground Motion Model for Turkey Using Stochastic Simulation of Earthquakes
Authors
Shaghayegh Karimzadeh, Amirhossein Mohammadi, Sayed Mohammad Sajad Hussaini, Daniel Caicedo, Aysegul Askan, and Paulo B. Lourenço
Date
November 3, 2023
ABSTRACT

Turkey is characterised by a high level of seismic activity attributed to its complex tectonic structure. The country has a dense network to record earthquake ground motions; however, to study previous earthquakes and to account for potential future ones, ground motion simulations are required. Ground motion simulation techniques offer an alternative means of generating region-specific time-series data for locations with limited seismic networks or regions with seismic data gaps, facilitating the study of potential catastrophic earthquakes. In this research, a local ground motion model (GMM) for Turkey is developed using region-specific simulated records, thus constructing a homogeneous dataset. The simulations employ the stochastic finite- fault approach and utilise validated input-model parameters in distinct regions, namely Afyon, Erzincan, Duzce, Istanbul, and Van. To overcome the limitations of linear regression-based models, artificial neural network (ANN) is used to establish the form of equations and coefficients. The predictive input parameters encompass fault mechanism (FM), focal depth (FD), moment magnitude (Mw), Joyner and Boore distance (RJB), and average shear wave velocity in the top 30 meters (Vs30). The dataset comprises 7359 records with Mw ranging between 5.0 and 7.5 and RJB ranging from 0 to 272 km. The results are presented in terms of spectral ordinates within the period range of 0.03 to 2.0 seconds, as well as peak groundORIGINAL UNEDITED MANUSCRIPT acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV). The quantification of the GMM uncertainty is achieved through the analysis of residuals, enabling insights into inter- and intra-event uncertainties. The simulation results and the effectiveness of the model are verified by comparing the predicted values of ground motion parameters with the observed values recorded during previous events in the region. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model in simulating physical phenomena.

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